Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.