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Increasing worries are present about the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his government's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, making it without sea access.

In 1998, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite persistent challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry cautioned on 16 September that moves to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Region

There have been few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has displayed graduation ceremonies of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the war was concluded – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

However relations have later worsened once more.